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Could Ukraine Have Foiled Russia’s Illegal Annexation of Crimea in 2014?

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Despite claims that a proposed U.S. peace plan could involve acknowledging Russia’s unlawful seizure of Crimea, President Donald Trump refuted allegations that Ukraine was under pressure to agree with this action—while simultaneously stating that Ukraine had ceded control of Crimea back in 2014 without engaging in combat.

No one is demanding (President Volodymyr) Zelensky to acknowledge Crimea as part of Russia, yet if his aim is to,
Crimea
Why didn’t they resist back then when it was transferred to Russia without any resistance twelve years ago?
Trump
posted on his Truth Social platform on April 23.

The assertion that Ukraine merely surrendered Crimea after Russia unlawfully took control of the peninsula in February 2014 overlooks years of Moscow’s military expansion in the area and the unstable political turmoil happening in Ukraine at the time, which rendered Kyiv unprepared to resist effectively.

Russia’s takeover of Crimea occurred simultaneously with the
Euromaidan Revolution
, often seen as the most significant political occurrence in Ukraine’s independent history, culminating in the removal of the then pro-Kremlin president.
Viktor Yanukovych
.

Following Yanukovych’s directive for his security forces to fire upon demonstrators, resulting in approximately 100 fatalities, he escaped to Russia on February 21, 2014. This exodus created a leadership void after his exit.
Moscow
shifted their focus to annex Crimea.

The Kremlin had been accumulating soldiers in Crimea over several years due to pacts permitting it to deploy its forces there.
Black Sea Fleet
On the peninsula, this military presence allowed Moscow to swiftly gain control of Crimea within just four weeks.

On February 27, 2014, Russian special forces lacking identifying marks occupied both the Supreme Council building and the headquarters of the Crimean Ministers. Several weeks afterward, Russian servicemen gained control over various strategic sites including airports, different Ukrainian military installations, and naval facilities. Despite this occupation generally occurring without significant opposition, personnel based at the Belbeck Airbase engaged in combat with the advancing Russian forces.

A total of 103 cadets, 2,239 soldiers and sailors, along with 1,649 officers from the Ukrainian Armed Forces resisted for nearly a month under full Russian encirclement in Crimea, as stated by the then-acting president of Ukraine.
Oleksandr Turchynov
posted recently on his personal website on April 14 in reaction to assertions that the Ukrainian troops positioned in Crimea were not ordered to hold their ground.

In the meantime, both the United States and the United Kingdom — who signed the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, promising to maintain Ukraine’s territorial integrity in return for Kiev giving up its nuclear arsenal — found themselves
nuclear arsenal
— failed to defend Ukraine. The accord has faced significant criticism due to its ambiguous political assurances instead of clear promises to safeguard Ukraine against military aggression.

“They mentioned that their aim was not to upset Vladimir Putin or instigate a large-scale conflict in the center of Europe. Ukraine did not receive even a solitary ammunition round,” Turchynov remembered.

Russia’s long-term plan

Russia started making its initial moves towards its future.
occupation
Of Crimea well before 2014, aided by the administration of former pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.

The Kharkiv accords, signed by Yanukovych and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on April 21, 2010, prolonged the lease allowing Russia to maintain its Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol until 2042. These agreements from that same year also removed all limitations on
Russian troops
‘Their movements around the peninsula created all the necessary conditions for an occupation,’ Turchynov stated.

The rise in the number of vessels from the Russian fleet, with forces and weaponry surpassing those of Ukraine, has been notable.
Crimea
The arrangement was intended to provide Ukraine with less expensive Russian natural gas through a discount achieved by waiving custom duties. However, this agreement posed a threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty.

“This posed a threat since at any moment, this coalition (of forces) might have initiated more extensive operations against our nation,” said Vadym Skibitskyi, the deputy chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR).
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL)
in 2021.

Between 2010 and 2014, Russia quietly started moving in upgraded or restored gear into Crimea to bolster its military presence, as reported.
Ukrainian intelligence
(HUR) The organization similarly documented instances where Russia took control of Ukrainian navigational gear in both 2011 and 2012.

Russian forces were simultaneously establishing fresh brigades in the region of the Crimean Peninsula. Concurrently, the Ukrainian military had faced prolonged budget reductions. A continuing restructuring led to the dissolution of the 32nd Army Corps and the removal of the 3rd Separate Special Forces Regiment, units previously based in Crimea.

During President Viktor Yushchenko’s tenure from 2005 to 2010, the topic of enhancing Ukraine’s armed forces’ fighting efficiency and readiness was addressed.
NATO membership
were frequently brought up. These talks stalled during Yanukovych’s tenure.

Near the conclusion of his presidency, Yushchenko stated in 2009 that the
Ukrainian army
had turned into a “casualty of political machinations,” suggesting that conflicts inside the administration had resulted in the military’s destitution.

In late 2013, tensions escalated further around the peninsula. As the Olympics approached in Sochi, a coastal city by the Black Sea, Russian authorities declared they needed to implement extra security precautions in the waters to guarantee safety throughout the sports competition.

Utilizing this narrative, the Russian armed forces engaged in exercises to block both maritime areas and airspace. They carried out numerous surveillance missions using specialized recon planes and long-range radar systems. Additionally, they performed assertive intelligence-gathering activities against
Ukraine
,” Skibitskyi told RFE/RL.

In late February 2014, Russian paratroopers from areas such as Tula, Ryazan, and Kubinka were said to be placed on heightened alert and commenced movements towards the Black Sea coastline.

At that time, Ukraine had minimal ability to react.

Losing precious time

The Kremlin began its
occupation
of
Crimea
While Kyiv was in turmoil following Yanukovych’s escape to Rostov-on-Don during the EuroMaidan protests, pro-Russian allies of the ex-president were preoccupied with their own departure from Ukraine rather than defending Crimea.

The complete strategy employed by Yanukovych began to take shape: it undermined the Ukrainian state, setting the stage for subsequent events.
annexation of Crimea
“And the effort to detach the eastern and southern regions from the remainder of the nation,” as stated in a report.
Warsaw Institute
Published in 2018, this reads that following the annexation of Crimea, Russia initiated an incursion into Ukraine’s eastern territories through proxy forces and also tried to instigate unrest in the southern areas.

Following the establishment of a provisional government in Kyiv, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council convened secretly on February 28, 2014, roughly a week since Russian troops initiated operations on the peninsula.

The participants opted to place the Ukrainian Armed Forces on full combat readiness and appealed to the
Budapest Memorandum
countries acting as guarantors, reinforce the protection of essential infrastructure, and establish an operations command center for addressing the scenario in Crimea.

These choices had minimal impact on getting Russia out of the peninsula.

On March 1, 2014, Ukrainian Admiral Denys Berezovskyi assumed command of the Ukrainian Navy. The following day, he defied instructions from the Ukrainian government and instead ordered subordinates in Crimea to secure weaponry in depots and store all military gear appropriately.

According to a
transcript
From the NSDC meeting held on February 28, 2014, former Defense Minister Ihor Teniukh stated that Ukraine had deployed approximately 15,000 troops to the peninsula by late February 2014.

Turchynov subsequently stated that after the start of the occupation, 70% of Ukrainian troops broke their military vows, reducing their count to 4,000. Nevertheless, according to Teniukh, not more than 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers were battle-ready.

Throughout his term as president, Yanukovych’s political group, the Party of Regions, worked closely alongside Russian intelligence agencies to maintain surveillance over Crimea. They laid the groundwork for future aggression, claims the Warsaw Institute. Specifically, they managed to penetrate and detain members of Ukrainian military forces, law enforcement, and officials from the Security Service through covert operations conducted by Moscow operatives, according to the same source.

Poor political direction, decreased motivation, inadequate funding and supply chain issues, along with the methodical efforts of
Russian agents
Under the command of the security forces, there was widespread desertion and defection to the adversary among the majority of Ukrainian soldiers and officers posted in occupied Crimea,” Turchynov stated.

Viktor Yanukovych intentionally relinquished control of Crimea. He faced no pressure from the Russian Federation.

“Most of the remnants of our military units, surrounded and scattered across the peninsula, were not even able to fulfill orders and basic requirements of military regulations, ensuring the defense of their positions with weapons,” Turchynov added.

After forcibly taking control of Crimea, the Russian administration organized a vote on the region’s status, excluding international monitors and conducting the poll with armed Russian troops stationed at voting sites. Subsequently, Russia proclaimed Crimea as part of their country, formalizing this unlawful incorporation on March 21, 2014. The legitimacy of this referendum remains unrecognized by most nations around the world.

“Viktor Yanukovych willingly gave up Crimea; he faced no coercion from the Russian Federation,” stated Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, who previously led Ukraine’s Security Service, during an interview.
Yanukovych’s trial
in absentia in 2018.

The capitulation of Crimea to Russia was orchestrated as far back as 2010, when
fugitive President Yanukovych
he arrived at the office, he added.

On March 24, 2014, Turchynov issued an order implementing the National Security and Defense Council’s decision to move military units and law enforcement organizations from Crimea to different parts of Ukraine.

In under a month, Russia had advanced to invade and take control of portions of
eastern Ukraine
.


Read also:

The roots of the 2014 conflict in Donbas

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