By Catarina Demony and Sergio Goncalves
LISBON (newsinpo.site) – Portuguese citizens headed to the polling stations on Sunday for their third parliamentary election within three consecutive years, confronting an uncertain scenario due to a vote not expected to result in a stable administration.
The Sunday ballot took place only a year into the center-right minority administration’s tenure following Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s failure to secure parliamentary support in March. This occurred during a vote he initiated when the opposition challenged his credibility due to controversies surrounding his family’s consulting business.
Montenegro has refuted all allegations of misconduct, and the majority of public surveys have indicated that voters are disregarding the opposition’s critiques.
Voting locations will be accessible between 8 a.m. and 7 p.m. (0700-1800 GMT), and exit polls should start at 8 p.m. (1900 GMT).
The election, heavily influenced by topics like housing and immigration, comes after ten years marked by unstable administrations, none of which managed to complete their terms with a parliamentary majority intact—last year even saw one government collapse midway through its tenure.
According to opinion polls, Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance (AD) is expected to secure the highest number of votes and possibly gain slightly more seats compared to the previous election held in March 2024; however, they still won’t have an outright parliamentary majority.
Turnout at 1600 (1500 GMT) was 48.28%, below the 51.96% registered at the same time in the previous vote, amid concerns about election fatigue keeping voters away.
Speaking on broadcaster RTP, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa told voters not to miss the opportunity: “This is a very difficult time… with many uncertainties and only the people have the power to decide.”
Outside the polling station where Montenegro voted in the northern city of Espinho, Irene Medeiros, 77, said the “best candidate must win”, but that she feared more uncertainty ahead.
Portugal has outperformed most European Union countries on economic growth, and run budget surpluses and reduced its debts under both centre-left and centre-right governments.
But further political instability could delay major projects such as lithium mining in the north, and potentially compromise the long-delayed privatisation of the TAP airline.
‘ONLY DOUBT’
Shortly after casting his own ballot, Montenegro told reporters he was confident stability could be achieved.
“There is a search for a stable solution, but that will now depend on (people’s) choices,” he said.
Montenegro’s perennial rival, the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), was polling about 26%, behind the AD on more than 32%, in Radio Renascenca’s “poll of polls” aggregator.
Antonio Costa Pinto, a political scientist, suggested that the incoming parliament might resemble the previous one, making it difficult to forecast the duration of the government’s tenure. This uncertainty stems from various elements, including global conditions and the Christian Democratic Party’s (AD) capacity to form alliances with other factions.
The sole uncertainty lies in whether the AD will establish a new minority administration… or if they will forge a post-election alliance with the IL, despite such a partnership not ensuring a clear-cut majority,” he stated, referencing the business-friendly Liberal Initiative (IL) party, which ranks fourth in public opinion surveys.
This shares similarities with Montenegro’s AD, and numerous experts view them as ideal collaborators. However, during the entire campaign period, IL’s poll figures have not reached levels sufficient enough for an alliance between these entities to secure a majority of at least 116 seats in the 230-member parliament.
The far-right Chega party, from which Montenegro distances itself entirely and avoids making any agreements, has been consistently showing around 18% in recent polls, placing them at third position—akin to their performance in the previous year. However, last-minute health issues faced by their leader, Andre Ventura, might impact the final results.
Following two hospitalizations earlier this week for an esophageal spasm, he unexpectedly showed up at his party’s concluding gathering on Friday.
(Covered by Catarina Demoney, Sergio Goncalves, Miguel Pereira, Elena Rodriguez, and Leonardo Benassatto; Edited by Andrei Khalip, Mark Potter, Helen Popper, Peter Graff)
